Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

الموضوع في 'منتدى الفوركس - Forex' بواسطة AlienOvichO, بتاريخ ‏20 مارس 2017.

  1. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو نشيط

    إنضم إلينا في:
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    4
      07-09-2017 12:13
    Gold Soars Above $1300 as Concerns Mount

    Gold has tested $1300 level 3 times since April and it finally broke above the level on Monday and rose to the highest level this year. The trigger of the break seems to be the North Korea firing a ballistic missile over Japan, which boosts the safe haven demand. The yellow metal then extended the rally to 11 month high after North Korea nuke test. Gold’s strength, however, can not be attributed to just one event, but rather over a series of concerns which start to build a wall of worry among investors.​
    [​IMG]

    A few weeks ago, White House chief economic adviser Gary Cohn came close to resigning after president Trump’s response of blaming “both sides” in the deadly violence at Charlottesville, Virginia. Mr. Cohn is the main architect of President Trump’s tax reform agenda, and thus when news of his possible departure started to circulate around Aug 17, markets were spooked. Then there are also concerns of government shutdown if the debt ceiling is not raised. If this happens, it will trigger technical default on U.S debt.​
    Apart from the argument of safe haven demand, Gold for some people is considered as the best form of sound money. Unlike fiat money which can be printed ex nihilo, Gold has limited quantities. It has survived thousands of years as a form of money, longer than any other alternative forms of payment. The chart below compares Gold’s role as store value vs the fiat:​
    [​IMG]

    The chart above shows that while equity markets are hitting all-time highs in USD term, it peaked against Gold in 2000 and remain 70% below the peak.​
    We believe Gold’s dual role as sound money and safe haven demand will become more prominent in the next coming months as the massive Quantitative Easing experiment by central banks around the world start to reveal the true costs. This month, we shall also see the market reaction to the U.S. Fed’s plans to normalize their balance sheet and taper bonds reinvestment. On paper, this is the same as money tightening and thus could have the opposite effect of money printing.​
    Gold Daily Elliottwave Sequence Chart
    [​IMG]

    The Daily Chart of Gold shows the sequence from 12.15.2016 is bullish and favors more upside towards 1376.8 – 1417.6. When Gold reaches this area, it will also break above 7.6.2016 peak at 1375.15 which opens another larger bullish sequence from 12.3.2015 low. Thus, we don’t like selling Gold in any pullback and prefer to buy dips in 3, 7, or 11 swing.​
     

  2. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو نشيط

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      08-09-2017 12:13
    GBPUSD Elliott Wave View: More Upside

    GBPUSD Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the rally from 8/24 low is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 8/24 low (1.2773), Minor wave 1 ended at 1.2979 and Minor wave 2 ended at 1.2851. Minor wave 3 is in progress and the subdivision is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Minute wave ((i)) of 3 ended at 1.2947, Minute wave ((ii)) of 3 ended at 1.2907, Minute wave ((iii)) of 3 ended at 1.3082 and Minute wave ((iv)) of 3 ended at 1.303. Minute wave ((v)) of 3 is expected to end soon within 1.3104 – 1.3182 area. Afterwards, pair should pullback in Minor wave 4 before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback.​
    GBPUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  3. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو نشيط

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      11-09-2017 16:38
    Under Armour UAA Weekly Elliott Wave Outlook

    Under Armour (NYSE: UAA) is one of the leading sporstwear companies around the world. However it’s stock has been struggling in the recent 2 years as it lost %68 since September 2015.​
    In our previous article, we pointed out to the current correction taking place which could turn out to be 3 waves flat structure. It turned out to be the case for UAA and the stock currently extending lower into the 123.6% – 1.618% fib ext area (21.49 – 13.32) where it’s expected to end the correction in wave ((II)) and resume higher or bounce in 3 waves at least.​
    UAA can extend further toward 10.98 which is the target for wave I = wave V but we need to be aware that it has already enough number of swings in place to end the cycle from 09/17/2015. That’s why it’s not recommended to chase the short side at current stage.​
    Overall, UAA will remain under pressure until it manage to break the short term pivot of wave IV at 23.46 as a first step then we’ll be looking for the next leg higher to take it above $52 or fail below it for a double correction taking place in a later stage.​
    UAA Weekly Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  4. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو نشيط

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      11-09-2017 16:53
    INSM Insmed Inc Stock Skyrocketed

    INSM Insmed Inc Stock Skyrocketed by a staggering 120% higher recently.​
    According to Nasdaq.com, the Insmed Inc. INSM stock advanced more than double in the pre-market trading after the company announced that its new drug, an inhaled antibiotic known as Alis, successfully treated patients with a rare lung disease. More specifically:​
    Alis met the main goal in a late-stage study involving 336 adult patients with nontuberculous mycobacterial lung infections. According to Insmed, the addition of the drug showed statistically significant reduction in bacterial density by month six in 29% of patients, compared to just 9% in patients receiving the standard treatment.​
    INSM Insmed Inc Stock Skyrocketed – Weekly Time Frame
    Without any further delays lets take a look at the Weekly Chart. Price has extended from the all time lows at 2.60 suggesting cycle from 08/28/2000 has been completed and should see at this stage a correction against the 199.22 highs. And of course is too early too make huge calls, the reason we are going to take it step by step.​
    At this stage and as the following chart indicates, INSM has extended with waves iii red while in 3rd swing up for ((w)). Short cycles we should see a short term pull back and from there extend higher again to reach the equal legs – 1.236% extension at the zone of 34.80’s – 40.90’s before sellers appear. The view comes inline with our analysis relating to IBB and XLV ETF’s while both Funds are looking for additional extension higher. So at this point we are looking for the dip in wave iv red to trigger Long entries towards the targets higher as mentioned above.​
    [​IMG]

     
  5. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو نشيط

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      12-09-2017 15:16
    DXY Dollar Index Elliott Wave View: 9.12.2017

    DXY Dollar Index Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the decline from 8/16 peak is unfolding as an Ending Diagonal Elliott Wave structure. Down from 8/16 high, Minor wave 1 ended at 91.62 and Minor wave 2 ended at 93.347. Minor wave 3 is unfolding as a double three Elliottwave structure. Minute wave ((w)) of 3 ended at 91.01 and Minute wave ((x)) of 3 is in progress. The internal subdivision of Minute wave ((x)) shows a zigzag Elliottwave structure. Minutte wave (a) of ((x)) ended at 91.62 and Minutte wave (b) of ((x)) ended at 91.41.​
    The Index has reached an inflection area where Minutte wave (c) = Minutte wave (a) and thus cycle from 9/8 low is mature. Expect Minute wave ((x)) of 3 to end at 92.02 – 92.4. While bounces stay below 93.36, Index should resume lower or at least pullback in 3 waves. We don’t like buying the Dollar Index.​
    DXY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  6. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو نشيط

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      13-09-2017 15:09
    VSTM Verastem Inc – Bullish Break
    VSTM Verastem Inc (NASDAQ: VSTM) stock price has created a strong bullish break in the weekly time frame. The break comes in line with the recent announcement on Wednesday the 6th 09/17 relating to their progressing treatment for Leukemia which sky rocked the stock 44% higher. Wednesday’s catalyst for the rally is the positive top-line data from the Pivot Phase 3 DUO study for the treatment of certain types of Leukemia and Lymphoma.​
    According to reteurs.com

    • Verastem said its drug, Duvelisib, reduced the risk of disease progression or death in patients by 48 percent when compared with the current standard of care, Novartis’s Arzerra.​
    • The oral drug was tested in 319 patients suffering from chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) or small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL), who did not respond to initial treatment or whose cancer had relapsed. CLL and SLL affect cells in the immune system, causing them to grow and multiply uncontrollably. There will be about 62,000 new cases of leukemia in the United States this year; of which CLL will account for about a quarter, according to the American Cancer Society. Verastem said it would file for a marketing application for duvelisib in the first half of 2018. The study results were “squarely positive,” and suggested a commercial opportunity that was not fully reflected in Verastem’s stock price, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Mara Goldstein said in a client note.​
    Before we get into more details about the Stock, few words about the company.​
    According the company’s official website verastem.com, Verastem Inc. (NASDAQ: VSTM) is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing drugs which improve patients with cancer. Verastem’s product candidates seek to treat cancer by targeting malignant cells both directly and through modulation of the tumor microenvironment. Our most advanced programs target the phosphoinositide-3-kinase (PI3K) and Focal Adhesion Kinase (FAK) pathways.​
    VSTM Verastem Inc – Bullish Break in the Weekly TF
    [​IMG]

    (NASDAQ: VSTM) Verastem Inc. stock price broke the multi year bearish trend line the 07/10/2017; suggesting that the 07/08/2013 cycle from the all time highs of 18.70’s has been completed at the 1.05 lows. As we all know, after a trend line break, a retest follows to validate the move. The VSTM Stock price retraced lower after the break higher to retest the broken trend line. Price failed to extend below the 2.99 level and from there the stock extend higher. Recently, price broke one more important barrier, the larger degree descending channel’s median line adding additional strength to the overall bias.​
    At this stage; we anticipate a short term pull back to retest the median line around the 4.84 area.​
    VSTM Verastem Inc – Bullish Break in the Daily TF
    [​IMG]

    The (NASDAQ: VSTM) Verastem Inc. stock at the Daily time frame has inline a bullish incomplete sequence from the 1.03 lows. At the time of conducting the study, price is trading at the 5.24 level. That level is the 61.8% – 76.4% Fibonacci extension of the (W) – (X) blue swings. From around current levels, we want to see the short term correction lower. The correction should mark wave B (red) and ideally retrace to the 4.80’s area. Post completion, we expect an extension higher towards our target at the equal legs – 1.236% extension, around the 6.60’s – 7.50’s zone.​
    Overall View & Trade Recommendation:
    Our view favors the (NASDAQ: VSTM) Verastem Inc. Stock higher and recommends; Long Trades post Short Term 3-Swing Pull Backs. Wave B should unfold in 3, 7 or 11 swings against first degree the 2.99 “(X) blue” and second degree the all time lows at the 1.03 invalidation level.​
     
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  7. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو نشيط

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      14-09-2017 15:44
    DXY Elliott Wave View: Zigzag Correction

    DXY Dollar Index Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the Index ended Primary wave ((3)) at 91.01 and currently in a Primary wave ((4)) bounce. Internal of Primary wave ((4)) is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott wave structure. Preferred view suggests rally to 92.01 completed Intermediate wave (A) and dip to 91.71 ended Intermediate wave (B) as an expanded Elliott wave FLAT. Expect the Index to continue higher towards 92.71 – 92.95 area to complete Primary wave ((4)). Afterwards, the Index should resume the decline lower or at least pullback in 3 waves. We don’t like buying the Dollar Index. Expect sellers to appear at 92.71 – 93.33 area for a 3 waves reaction lower at least. If the rally in the Dollar Index extends beyond 93.33 (1.168 extension), the move from 9/8 low could unfold as impulse instead.​

    DXY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

    [​IMG]
     
  8. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو نشيط

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      15-09-2017 11:58
    DXY Elliott Wave View 9.15.2017

    DXY Dollar Index Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the Index ended Primary wave ((3)) at 91.01. Primary wave ((4)) bounce is proposed complete at 92.66 as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Wave (W) of ((4)) ended at 92.01, wave (X) of ((4)) ended at 91.71, and wave (Y) of ((4)) is proposed complete at 92.66. Down from there, Intermediate wave (1) ended at 91.97. Intermediate wave (2) bounce is in progress in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 9/14 peak. While bounces stay below there, expect Index to extend lower. We don’t like buying the Dollar Index.​
    DXY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  9. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو نشيط

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      18-09-2017 15:33
    CADJPY Elliott Wave Sequence still bullish

    CADJPY Elliott Wave Sequence is bullish and incomplete to the upside due to which we have been telling clients not to sell the pair and use the dips as an opportunity to get long for higher prices. Our Live Trading Room was able to catch a long in CADJPY for a profit of +197 pips recently and in this blog, we will take a look at CADJPY daily chart to show that the rally is not over yet and any pull backs should still be viewed as a buying opportunity in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings.​
    CADJPY Elliott Wave Sequence from 11.9.2016
    [​IMG]

    Daily chart of CADJPY shows the pair rallied in 3 waves from 11.9.2016 low to 12.15.2016 high. Then, the pair pulled back to 50 – 61.8 Fibonacci retracement area of the rally from 11.9.2016 low and made a new high above 12.15.2016 peak. As soon as pair broke above 12.15.2016 peak, it created a bullish Elliott wave sequence with a target of 94.57 – 97.91 area. We know that market doesn’t move in a straight line and always does pull backs. Since the pair broke above 12.15.2016 peak, we have been telling clients to use pull backs as a buying opportunity in 3, 7 or 11 swings. As far as dips hold above 8.11.2017 low i.e blue (X) low, pair should remain supported and see more upside towards 94.57 – 97.91 area.​
    CADJPY 8 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis
    Pair is showing 5 swings up from 4.19.2017 low which makes Elliott wave sequence incomplete and bullish against 8.11.2017 low in this time frame. Pair has reached 0.618 – 0.764 Fibonacci extension area of (W)-(X). This is the area which will typically end 5th swing in a 7 swing sequence. Therefore, we don’t like chasing the longs here as a pull back can be seen soon in wave X. We don’t like selling the pair and expect wave X pull back to find buyers in 3, 7 or 11 swings as far as pivot at 8.11.2017 i.e. blue (X) at 85.44 low remains intact.​
    [​IMG]
     
  10. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو نشيط

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      18-09-2017 16:07
    AECOM Resuming the Rally Toward $50

    AECOM (NYSE:ACM) provides planning, consulting, architectural and engineering design and program and construction management services for a range of projects including highways, airports, bridges, mass transit systems, to government and commercial clients. The company had US$17.4 billion of revenue during fiscal year 2016, it’s been ranked number one in Engineering News Record‘s “Top 500 Design Firms” for 8th consecutive year and named one of Fortune magazine’s “World’s Most Admired Companies” for the third consecutive year.​
    From 2008 low, AECOM stock is showing 5 swings incomplete bullish sequence which is different from the regular impulsive 5 waves move as we use this sequence as part of our new way of applying Elliott Wave Theory to the market. We believe that many instrument has the ability to trend using corrective Elliott wave structure rather then trending in 5 waves move, so this move is considered as part of a double three structure which has 7 swings.​
    AECOM managed last year to make new all time high, so using 2014 peak & 2016 low as a connector, the stock is looking to extend higher toward equal legs area 46.53 – 52.14 before ending the cycle from 2008 low.​
    AECOM Weekly Chart
    [​IMG]

    AECOM ended 3 waves pullback from 12/12/2016 peak after it reached the 50-61.8 fib retracement area 31.75 – 29.63, so currently as long as it remains above the recent August low at 30.15 and most importantly as long as 22.84 pivot keeps holding then AECOM will extend higher to make new all time highs and reach the target around the $50 area.​
    [​IMG]

    Recap
    AECOM has a bullish structure and technically it has resumed the move higher unless the move truncates without reaching the target and decide to make the double correction from 2016 peak. It’s not recommended to sell it and it’s better to look for buying opportunity during short term pullbacks using corrective structures in 3 , 7 or 11 swings.​
     
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