Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

الموضوع في 'منتدى الفوركس - Forex' بواسطة AlienOvichO, بتاريخ ‏20 مارس 2017.

  1. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو فعال

    إنضم إلينا في:
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    10
      07-06-2018 15:59
    Australia Economy Beat Expectation
    Australia Economy Posts Strong Q1 Growth
    Australia’s 1st quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product is growing at 1.01%, beating the expectation of 0.9%. This is the largest increase since late 2011 and brings the year-on-year growth rate to 3.1%, up from 2.4% in the previous quarter. Chart below shows the year-on-year growth of Australia’s GDP:​
    [​IMG]

    The figure from Bureau of Statistics suggests that the strong growth is driven primarily by exports of mining commodities. Half of the increase in GDP can be attributed to mining export growth, which is recovering from temporary supply disruptions at the end of last year. Government spending also contribute a solid one third to the economy’s growth.​
    Despite the strong growth, wage or price pressure remains soft. Until wage growth and inflation start to pick up materially, the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) should keep the cash rate on hold. However, if the above-trend growth can be sustained this year, it should feed into wages and gradually lift wages growth and inflation.​
    The good economic data from Australia may provide support to Australian Dollar in the short term. Below is an Australian cross pair which may benefit from today’s good news.​
    AUDCAD Short Term Elliott Wave Sequence
    [​IMG]

    Cycle starting from 5.10.2018 low in AUDCAD shows a 5 swing bullish sequence favoring further upside as far as pullback stays above 0.9702. Pair has scope to reach 0.999 – 1.0057 area before ending cycle from 5.10 low and seeing profit taking and a 3 waves pullback.​
    AUDCAD 1 Hour Chart – New York Update
    [​IMG]

    AUDCAD had a 3 swing pullback to 0.9848 which may have ended Minute wave ((b)). Pair should now break above Minute wave ((a)) at 0.9925 to confirm this view and to avoid a double correction in Minute wave ((b)). If pair turns lower and break below Minute wave ((b)), then it is doing a double correction (7 swing structure) and should open further downside, but as far as the dips stay above 0.9702 low, more upside is expected.​
     
  2. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو فعال

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    10
      08-06-2018 15:37
    Google (GOOGL) : Elliott wave structure looking for $1250.00

    Google is still within a powerful wave ((III) and in the process of ending a super cycle degree in the next few years. We believe the cycle which started at 2009 low will end sometimes between 2020-2022. By that time, Google would have reached the minimum target of $1250. It can extend even higher, and we do not see any reason yet to sell.​
    In contrary, the stock provided us a nice long opportunity earlier this year. We believe the stock will make a new all time high, which consequently makes it a buy in 3-7-11 waves back. The following chart provides an illustration of our view and the video also explains The One Market Concept and how Google should still trade higher within wave ((III)).​
    Google (GOOGL) Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis
    [​IMG]

    As can be seen in the chart above, we are labelling the rally from all-time low as an impulse Elliott Wave Structure. The stock is proposed to be in super cycle degree wave ((III)). The rally to $1179.86 on January 2018 high ended Cycle Degree wave III of ((III)), and the pullback to $980.64 on March 2018 low ended Cycle Degree wave IV of ((III)). While pullback stays above $980.64, expect Google to extend higher to $1250.97 – $1322.02 to end Cycle Degree wave V of ((III)). Then the stock should pullback in Super Cycle degree wave ((IV)) to correct cycle from 2009 low before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the stock.​
     
  3. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو فعال

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      11-06-2018 15:57
    Nifty Elliott Wave View Showing Perfect 5 Waves Advance

    NIFTY is trading in the powerful super cycle degree wave ((III) and should have further upside in the next few years. The rally started at 2009 low and we believe the cycle will continue until 2020-2022. The minimum target of the cycle is $11507, but it can extend even higher to 12634 area, which is where 1.618 Fibonacci extension within the Grand Super cycle degree will be reached.​
    We do not see any reason to sell yet, and in contrary, the Index gave us a good long opportunity earlier this year. The Index should continue to make a new all time high, and the right side still remains to buy in 3-7-11 waves back. The following chart shows our view and the video also explains The One Market Concept and how The Index should still trade higher within wave (III).​
    NIFTY long term Elliott Wave Analysis
    [​IMG]
    From the chart above, we can see the rally from all-time low is unfolding as an Impulse Elliott Wave Structure. The Index is currently within Super Cycle degree wave (III). The rally to 11171.55 on January 2018 high ended Primary Degree wave ((3)) of V, and the pullback to 9958.55 on March 2018 low ended Primary Degree wave ((4)) of V. While pullback stays above $9958.55, expect the Index to extend higher to $11507-12634 to end Cycle Degree wave V of (III). Then the Index should pullback in Super Cycle degree wave (IV) to correct cycle from 2009 low before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the Index.​
     
  4. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو فعال

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    10
      12-06-2018 15:49
    Dow Jones Nearing Completion of 5 Waves Impulse

    Dow Jones futures ticker symbol: $YM_F short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the pullback to 24227 low on 5/29/2018 ended Minor wave 4 pullback. Above from there, the rally is unfolding as impulse Elliott wave structure with extension in 3rd wave higher. As impulse, the internal of Minute degree wave ((i)), ((iii)) and ((v)) should also unfold as an impulse with 5 waves structure.​
    Up from 24227 low, Minute degree wave ((i)) ended in 5 waves structure at 24715. Down from there, the pullback to 24342 low ended Minute degree wave ((ii)). The rally from there shows a strong reaction to the upside which could end Minute wave ((iii)) at 25418 high. The subdivision of Minute wave ((iii)) show lesser degree impulse structure where Minutte wave (i) ended at 24863, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 24709, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 25327. Minutte wave (iv) ended at 25093 and Minutte wave (v) of ((iii)) ended at 25418 high. Near-term, Minute degree wave ((iv)) pullback is in progress in 3, 7 or 11 swings. As far as a pivot from 24337 low stays intact, expect the Index to see another push higher in Minute wave ((v)) to end 5 waves impulse structure from 5/29/2018 low. The move higher should also complete Minor degree wave 5. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback.​
    Dow Jones 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  5. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو فعال

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      12-06-2018 16:26
    The Sensex Index Long Term Bullish Cycles

    The Sensex Index long term bullish cycles have been trending higher with other world indices. Firstly in it’s base year 1978 to 1979 the index’s point value was set at 100. From there it rallied with other world indices trending higher into the January 2008 highs. It then corrected the bullish cycle as did most other world indices. It ended that larger degree correction in October 2008. From those 2008 lows, the index shows a 5 swing sequence that favors further upside. Price has reached and exceeded the .618 Fibonacci extension of the 2008 to 2015 bullish cycle.​
    Secondly, this Fibonacci extension is measured is as follows. Use a Fibonacci extension tool on a charting platform. Point 1 will be at the beginning of the cycle at the 2008 lows. From there on up to the 2015 highs will be point 2. The point 3 will be down at the 2016 lows. As earlier mentioned, the index in January 2018 saw the .618 Fibonacci extension of the 2008 to 2015 cycle. In most cases a fifth swing will end in this .618 – .764 Fibonacci extension area. The analysis continues below the chart.​
    Sensex Index Monthly Chart​
    [​IMG]

    The currently favored view is the Sensex index dip lower from the 5th swing high ended the cycle up from the 2016 lows. It did a 3 swing pullback to the March 2018 lows to complete the 6th swing. Thus at this point it is favored to remain above there during dips. The most bearish near term case is if it remains below the January 2018 highs it can continue a pullback in the 6th swing in 3 more swings. This would make a possible 7, or 11 swings to correct the cycle up from the 2016 low which should be similar to the 2nd swing pullback of 2011 or the 4th swing of 2016.​
    In conclusion. Either way while price is above the February 2016 lows the Fibonacci extension areas remain the same. Afterward of completion of the 6th swing pullback it should see more upside in the 7th swing toward the 44792-50078 area.​
     
  6. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو فعال

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      13-06-2018 15:28
    Intraday Elliott Wave Analysis: SPX Due for Pullback Soon

    SPX short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the rally to 2742.24 high ended Minor wave 3 as Elliott wave impulse. Below from there the pullback to 2676.81 on 5/29/2018 low ended Minor wave 4 as Zigzag structure. Up from there, Minor wave 5 rally is unfolding as impulse Elliott wave structure with extension in 3rd wave higher. As an impulse, the internal subdivisions of Minute degree wave ((i)), ((iii)) and ((v)) should unfold as 5 waves structure. On the other hand, the corrective Minute degree wave ((ii)) & ((iv)) should unfold in any 3 wave corrective sequence i.e double three, triple, flats etc.​
    The first leg of the rally from Minor wave 4 at 2676.81 low ended Minute wave ((i)) as 5 waves structure at 2729.34. Then the pullback to 2700.88 low ended Minute wave ((ii). Above from there, the index rallied higher in extended Minute wave ((iii)) which ended at 2790.21 high. Down from there, Minute wave ((iv)) pullback looks complete at 2778.78 low and index can now see the last push higher towards 2801.31-2820.07 area before ending Minor wave 5. The last push higher should also complete Intermediate wave (1). Afterwards, the index is expected to do an intermediate wave (2) pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings to correct cycle from April 3 low before further upside is seen. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback.​
    SPX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  7. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو فعال

    إنضم إلينا في:
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    10
      13-06-2018 15:42
    Nike Ending Elliott Wave 5 Waves Soon?

    Nike ticker Symbol: $NKE short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the rally to 73.47 high ended intermediate wave (3) as impulse. Down from there, the stock made a pullback in intermediate wave (4) pullback as Zigzag correction when internal Minor wave A ended at 71.65. Minor wave B ended at 72.53 high and Minor wave C ended at 70.42 low which also completed the intermediate wave (4) their.​
    Above from 70.42 low, the rally is taking place into another impulse structure in intermediate wave (5) high. The internals of each leg higher in impulse sequence has sub-division of 5 waves structure with extension in 3rd wave higher thus favored it to be an impulse. In which, Nike case Minor wave 1, 3 & 5 has sub-division of 5 waves structure. The internal Minor wave 1 completed in 5 waves at 72.27 high, Minor wave 2 completed at 71.24 as a Flat structure. Minor wave 3 completed in another 5 waves structure at 75.91 high. Below from there, Minor wave 4 pullback is expected to complete already at 74.31 low.​
    Near-term, while dips remain above that level the stock is expected to see another leg higher. Approximately towards 76.14-76.58 Minor 5=1 target area to complete the Minor wave 5 of (5). And also expected to complete the primary wave ((1)) as well. Then the stock is expected to do a primary wave ((2)) pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further upside is seen. We don’t like selling the stock into a proposed pullback.​
    Nike 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  8. AlienOvichO

    AlienOvichO عضو فعال

    إنضم إلينا في:
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    10
      18-06-2018 15:50
    Oil Price on Holding Pattern Ahead of OPEC meeting

    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet in Vienna next week to discuss potential reduction or revision to the 1.8 million barrels/day production cut put in place in early 2017. After yearlong rise in oil and gasoline price, there’s a call to control Oil price from rising too far and too fast. Interestingly, the loudest call comes from the United States.​
    Ahead of the congressional elections in November in the United States, President Donald Trump wants crude price to be lower. In fact, he tweeted twice specifically targetting OPEC. His first tweet was in April​
    [​IMG]

    Then yesterday Mr. Trump again criticize OPEC publicly in social media despite oil prices having stabilized since his first tweet in April. The rise in Oil price is due to the production cut in past few years by OPEC. However, most OPEC members are not able to increase production at this stage due to lack of investment and sanctions. Iran and Venezuela production for example continue to dwindle due to US sanctions. Venezuela’s oil exports are falling by tens of thousands of barrels every month while Iranian exports can fall by 200,000 and a million barrels a day by next year.​
    Oil’s market report for the month of June by EIA and Opec showing a stable demand growth while Non-Opec supply growth increased a bit.​
    [​IMG]

    Saudi Arabia and Russia seem to have agreed to export more oil to bolster the country’s economy, to the detriment of fellow Opec members such as Iran, Venezuela who want higher oil prices. The WTI has fallen back from $72.83 to $64 partly as a result of market expectation that OPEC will increase the production in the second half of the year. However, non-OPEC supply (mostly U.S. shale) is expected to grow as well. EIA expects oil demand to grow by 1.4 million barrels/day and non-OPEC supply will grow by 2 million barrels/day. With potential 1 million barrels/day addition by OPEC, the market looks to be well supplied until next year. These factors could help pressure and cap the price of Oil in 2018.​
    On the other hand, there are also factors which could be positive for Oil prices. Several OPEC countries are not able to increase the production. Venezuela experiences severe production outage, and already lost 350,000 barrels / day this year with the decline accelerating. Iran on the other hand can lose 500,000 to 1 million barrels / day supply because of U.S. sanctions. Thus, although Saudi Arabia and Russia might decide increase the output, the higher production might not offset the disruptions.​
    Oil Long Term Elliottwave View
    [​IMG]

    Oil (CL_F) rally from 6.9.2017 low exhibits an impulsive behavior with extension, which is typical characteristic of wave ((3)). In the proposed count above, the entire rally from 1.18.2016 low is unfolding as an impulse in which we are within cycle degree wave III. Cycle degree wave III has an internal subdivision of Impulse structure in lesser Primary degree. If this interpretation is correct, then Primary wave ((4)) pullback can’t overlap with Primary wave ((1)), which means as far as the pullback stays above $55.18, Oil can extend the rally higher.​
     
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GBP USD technical analysis and symmetrical triangle pattern ‏29 ديسمبر 2017

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